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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-08T20:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32639/-1
CME Note: Halo CME first seen by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-08T20:00Z, as well as in later frames by C3 and STEREO A COR2. The beginning of this event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-08T19:38Z to 2024-08-08T22:53Z. The source of this CME is an X1.3 class flare from AR 3777 (S05W25) that peaked at 2024-08-08T19:36Z. This flare can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Resulting field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The arrival of this CME (or the combined front of this CME and 2024-08-08T05:30Z CME) is possibly seen around 2024-08-11T12:00Z. This weak arrival signature is characterized by a gradual increase of solar wind speed to around 510 km/s and rotation of magnetic field components, with Bz eventually reaching -18 nT. ~2024-08-11T12:00Z is likely the start of an interaction region or the sheath between the previous ICME arriving on 2024-08-10 and this CME. 2024-08-12T07:44Z is likely to be the arrival of the flux rope of this CME. Note that there is no shock in this arrival due to the interaction with the previous CME (courtesy of Carlos Peres Alanis, LASSOS team).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T12:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T12:54Z (-4.05h, +5.87h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/08/08 19:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 09:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 5:20
POS Midpoint: 06:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.2
Travel Time: ~6.2 * 10:30 = 65:04

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-11T12:54Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/09 14:30Z
Lead Time: 43.92 hour(s)
Difference: -0.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-09T16:05Z
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